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  • Justin Long CFP®

Happy Friday



Good afternoon,

I wanted to check in and see how you are doing and make sure you are getting everything you need. We are diligently working on a daily basis to ensure you and your families financial plan still fits with the goals we set up when we last spoke. As we are adjusting to this new norm we will be participating in for at least the next month, we hope to stay connected and answer any questions or concerns that arise. Please let me know if there is anything at all, even if it’s just a quick video or phone call to chat about life or your plan ort the overall market. As we get more information I will convey it to you in real time and ensure anything pertinent I being sent on to ease your mind and make this entire situation as palpable as we can.

I have also included some thoughts on the first quarter and some of the data we have gathered. Please reach out if you want to discuss any or all or anything else you need to get off your mind.

  • The uptick we enjoyed last week is most likely due to quarterly rebalancing rather than a true sentiment change.

  • Earnings-based valuation is relatively meaningless, given that no one knows what earnings look like. As we get into Q1 earnings reporting over the next several weeks, expect many/most companies to suspend guidance. More important are the balance sheet, industry position and whether a company is systemically important. .

  • We all know what the number of COVID-19 cases will rise for a short period of time before the curve begins to flatten, so try to remind yourself and clients that news outlets of today are primarily there to sell eyeballs for advertising, with a secondary or tertiary objective to inform (usually their own point of view). Media is a business above all, not the Salvation Army. These are not the days of Walter Cronkite and Diane Sawyer. So internalizing all the negative press is not only counterproductive, it isn’t the whole picture of reality.

  • Remember that the vast majority of people exposed to COVID-19 have successfully rebuffed its most severe outcome with their own antibodies. That will continue to be the case. See co-morbidity table below, from www.worldometers.info/coronavirus.

  • It lists the percentage chance of death by pre-existing conditions, as well as by age group. Consider those numbers compared to demographics: the US population is 330 million https://www.census.gov/popclock/. The median age in the US is 38. According to the last census, 84% of the population is under the age of 62. Of those employed, 42 is the median age and of 160 million employed, only 10 million (6%) are over 64. Put another way, 94% of the US population which is working (driving the broader economy) has between a 97% to 99.8% survival rate.

PRE-EXISTING CONDITION

DEATH RATE confirmed cases DEATH RATE all cases

Cardiovascular disease

13.2% 10.5%

Diabetes

9.2% 7.3%

Chronic respiratory disease

8.0% 6.3%

Hypertension

8.4% 6.0%

Cancer

7.6% 5.6%

no pre-existing conditions

0.9%

AGE

DEATH RATE confirmed cases DEATH RATE all cases

80+ years old

21.9% 14.8%

70-79 years old

8.0%

60-69 years old

3.6%

50-59 years old

1.3%

40-49 years old

0.4%

30-39 years old

0.2%

20-29 years old

0.2%

10-19 years old

0.2%

0-9 years old

no fatalities

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Registered Representative and Investment Adviser Representative of and offers securities and advisory services in states where registered through E.K. Riley Investments, LLC.  Member FINRA and SIPC, Broker Dealer and an SEC Registered Investment Adviser. 

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